14 watches
Gold to $4,800. Silver to $80. We screened 40+ metals names, scored every one, and kept only the trades.
Three engines. One map.
Skip the noise. Here's what the math says, ranked.
| Rank | Play | Score | The math in one line |
|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | MP — MP Materials | 44/45 | Highest score on the entire map. US rare-earth flagship + government backing + already moving (+8.3% in a day) |
| #2 | USAR — USA Rare Earth | 42/45 | $1.6B government funding LOI + $1.5B private raise = the biggest confirmed catalyst on the board |
| #3 | AG / CDE — silver miners | 40/45 tied | Miners move ~2–3x the metal. If silver runs to $80, these amplify every dollar of that move — both already up 7%+ in one session |
Want one stock: MP — best score, best backing. Want one click instead of picking stocks: SILJ (junior silver miners ETF) is the highest-torque basket on the map — roughly 2–3x whatever silver does. Simple math example: gold needs ~+18% to hit $4,800; at ~2x torque, gold miner ETFs (GDX/GDXJ) would target roughly +35–45% on that same move. That multiplier — in both directions — is the entire game on this page.
How we cut 40+ names to 7. Five scores, two auto-ejects.
| Criterion | Weight | What it measures |
|---|---|---|
| Thesis Torque | ×3 | How hard the stock moves when its thesis plays out. High-cost and pure-play miners score high; diversified giants score mid. |
| Liquidity | ×2 | US listing, volume, real options chain — can you actually get in and out. |
| Momentum | ×2 | Already moving with the thesis. We want confirmation, not hope. |
| Survivability | ×1 | Balance sheet strength if the move stalls. |
| Catalysts | ×1 | Upcoming earnings leverage, production ramps, government contracts. |
Each criterion scores 1–5; max total 45. 36+ = Trade List. 30–35 = Watch List. Below 30 = cut. Two hard rules eject a name instantly regardless of score: Torque ≤2 (the stock doesn't really express the thesis — this removed every royalty company) and Liquidity ≤2 (OTC juniors you can't exit).
We graded every company on five things: how much it moves when metals rise, how easy it is to buy and sell, whether it's already going up, whether it can survive a downturn, and what news is coming. Low scorers are out. Companies that don't really track the metals — even famous ones — are out automatically.
The gold basket. Torque to $4,800.
| Ticker | Name | Score | Price | Day % | Why it made the cut |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEM | Agnico Eagle | 41 | — | +6.5% | Best-in-class gold major already confirming; ~$90.5B cap |
Only one gold name cleared the 36+ trade bar — the rest of the majors (NEM, GOLD, KGC, AU) sit on the watch list on weak same-day momentum, and the high-torque names (HMY, IAG) are one confirmation print away. Gold's cleaner expression right now is the ETFs below.
The silver basket. Torque to $80 — the hot leg.
| Ticker | Name | Score | Price | Day % | Why it made the cut |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AG | First Majestic | 40 | $14.88 | +7.7% | Most silver-pure large miner — max torque to $80 silver |
| CDE | Coeur Mining | 40 | $22.48 | +7.1% | High-cost profile = biggest margin expansion as silver runs |
| HL | Hecla | 37 | $14.19 | +6.8% | Largest US silver producer, moving with the metal |
The silver basket is where the action is: all three names jumped 6–8% in a single day. Silver miners swing harder than gold miners because silver itself is the more volatile metal — bigger upside if the thesis lands, bigger downside if it rejects.
MP leads the whole board. Scored on the onshoring + policy thesis.
| Ticker | Name | Score | Price | Mkt Cap | Why it made the cut |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MP | MP Materials | 44 | $47.47 · +8.3% | $9.4B | THE US rare-earth flagship — mine + magnets + DoD backing. Highest score on the map |
| USAR | USA Rare Earth | 42 | $17.69 | $4.6B | Upgraded: LOI for $1.6B US government funding + $1.5B private raise (Aug 2026) |
| UUUU | Energy Fuels | 38 | $14.11 · +9.3% | $3.5B | Three theses in one ticker: rare earths + uranium + titanium sands |
| NAK | Northern Dynasty | 38 | $1.88 (Jun 29) | $1.05B | The binary policy trade — Pebble permit push. Max torque, minimal survivability: lottery sizing only (EPA vetoed it before) |
These three are the main American companies building a homegrown supply of the special minerals used in EVs, wind turbines, and military tech. MP is the biggest and furthest along; the government is actively supporting this industry.
Close, not confirmed. Fourteen names one catalyst away.
| Ticker | Score | Basket | What would promote it |
|---|---|---|---|
| PAAS · Pan American | 35 | Silver | Safer/diversified — add if you want silver with less violence |
| LYSCF · Lynas | 35 | Rare earth | Biggest non-China producer ($11.5B) — OTC listing caps the score |
| HMY · Harmony | 34 | Gold | High-cost = max gold torque; needs momentum print |
| EXK · Endeavour | 34 | Silver | Purest silver torque; thin balance sheet |
| NEM · Newmont ($105.43) | 33 | Gold | The safe mega-cap; lower beta by design |
| AGI / IAG | 33 | Gold | Mid-tier torque; awaiting momentum data |
| SBSW · Sibanye ($9.09) | 33 | PGM | Platinum is precious too; balance sheet is the drag |
| FSM · Fortuna ($9.68) | 32 | Silver | Moving (+5.5%) but smaller and less liquid |
| GOLD / KGC / AU | 30–32 | Gold | Liquid majors, weak same-day momentum |
| WWR · Westwater ($0.67) | 35 | Policy | EXIM-funded graphite — but traded $0.41–0.93 in ONE day. News-spike vehicle |
| IE · Ivanhoe Electric ($10.84) | 33 | Policy | Quality US copper story (Santa Cruz); needs a momentum print |
| LAC · Lithium Americas | 33 | Policy | Thacker Pass + DOE-loan history; lithium price is the drag |
| UEC / CCJ · Uranium | 31–32 | Policy | US nuclear policy angle; CCJ safest, UEC more torque |
| CRML · Critical Metals ($5.50) | 31 | Policy | Tanbreez + Ucore offtake LOI — promoted from the cut line by the funding wave |
The one-click versions. Two per metal, as requested.
Gold ETFs
| Ticker | Fund | What it holds | Torque |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLD | SPDR Gold Shares (~$376) | Physical gold — tracks the metal itself | 1x — the pure $4,800 bet |
| IAU | iShares Gold Trust | Physical gold, lower fee than GLD | 1x |
| GDX | VanEck Gold Miners | Major gold miners (NEM, AEM, GOLD…) | ~2x the metal's move |
| GDXJ | VanEck Junior Gold Miners | Small/mid gold miners | ~2–3x — most torque |
Silver ETFs
| Ticker | Fund | What it holds | Torque |
|---|---|---|---|
| SLV | iShares Silver Trust ($73.63, +3.4%) | Physical silver — tracks the metal | 1x — the pure $80 bet |
| SIL | Global X Silver Miners | Major silver miners (PAAS, WPM…) | ~2x |
| SILJ | Amplify Junior Silver Miners | Junior silver miners (AG, HL, CDE tier) | ~2–3x — most torque on the map |
Other baskets
| Thesis | ETFs |
|---|---|
| PGM rise | PPLT platinum · PALL palladium (SBSW = equity proxy) |
| Rare earth / critical | REMX (the only real basket) |
| All-precious in one | GLTR — gold + silver + platinum + palladium in a single ticker |
Leverage warning: AGQ (2x silver), NUGT/JNUG (2x miners) exist — they are day/short-swing instruments only. Daily-reset decay destroys them as multi-week holds.
ETFs let you buy the whole idea in one click. "The metal" funds track the price of gold/silver itself. "Miner" funds hold the mining companies, which swing harder in both directions. Junior funds (GDXJ, SILJ) swing hardest of all.
The complete screen. All 5 component scores for the trades, totals for everything else.
Component order: Torque (×3) · Liquidity (×2) · Momentum (×2) · Survivability (×1) · Catalysts (×1). Max 45.
| Ticker | Basket | T·L·M·S·C | Total | Price / Cap (Aug 2026) | Day % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MP | Rare earth | 5·5·5·4·5 | 44 | $47.47 / $9.4B | +8.3% |
| USAR | Rare earth | 5·5·4·3·5 | 42 | $17.69 / $4.6B | — |
| AEM | Gold | 4·5·5·5·4 | 41 | — / $90.5B | +6.5% |
| AG | Silver | 5·4·5·3·4 | 40 | $14.88 | +7.7% |
| CDE | Silver | 5·4·5·3·4 | 40 | $22.48 | +7.1% |
| UUUU | RE / uranium / Ti | 4·4·5·4·4 | 38 | $14.11 / $3.5B | +9.3% |
| NAK | Policy (binary) | 5·4·4·2·5 | 38 | $1.88 / $1.05B | — |
| HL | Silver | 4·4·5·3·4 | 37 | $14.19 | +6.8% |
| PAAS | Silver | — | 35 | $41.15 | +4.1% |
| WWR | Policy | — | 35 | $0.67 / $97M | day range $0.41–0.93 |
| LYSCF | Rare earth | — | 35 | $11.52 / $11.9B | — |
| HMY | Gold | — | 34 | — | — |
| EXK | Silver | — | 34 | — | — |
| NEM | Gold | — | 33 | $105.43 / $111.1B | +1.1% |
| AGI · IAG | Gold | — | 33 | — | — |
| IE | Policy (copper) | — | 33 | $10.84 / $1.77B | — |
| LAC | Policy (lithium) | — | 33 | — | — |
| SBSW | PGM | — | 33 | $9.09 | +6.3% (Jul 31) |
| GOLD | Gold | — | 32 | — | — |
| FSM | Silver | — | 32 | $9.68 | +5.5% |
| UEC | Policy (uranium) | — | 32 | — | — |
| KGC | Gold | — | 31 | $25.62 / $30.4B | −0.3% |
| CCJ | Policy (uranium) | — | 31 | — | — |
| CRML | Policy | — | 31 | $5.50 / $808M | — |
| AU | Gold | — | 30 | $87.59 / $44.3B | −1.1% |
| EGO | Gold | — | 30 | — | — |
| NB · FEAM · BTG · MAG · TMC | Various | — | 28–30 | — | below the bar |
| FNV · WPM · RGLD | Royalty | torque ≤2 | auto-cut | FNV $231.08 / WPM $125.30 | +2.0% |
| PGE.V · SREMF · UURAF · TMRC · SVM · ASM | Juniors | liquidity ≤2 | auto-cut | micro-caps | — |
| ALB · FCX · SCCO · TECK | Off-thesis | torque ≤2 | auto-cut | — | — |
Green rows are the buys according to the filter. Yellow rows are solid companies missing one ingredient — usually momentum. Red rows failed a hard rule: they either don't really track the thesis or are too small to trade safely. WPM shows two conflicting prices in our sources — verify before quoting it.
What we removed — and why. The cuts teach the thesis.
| Removed | Reason |
|---|---|
| Royalty names — FNV ($231), WPM, RGLD, OR, SAND, TFPM | Auto-cut: torque ≤2. Excellent long-term holdings, but they deliberately mute metal-price swings — the opposite of what a trade wants. |
| Copper/diversified — SCCO, FCX, TECK, BHP, RIO, VALE | Auto-cut: industrial-metal thesis, not precious. Different trade, different day. |
| Illiquid juniors — SVM, ASM, TMRC, UURAF, PLG, Talon, Canada Nickel | Auto-cut: liquidity ≤2. Can't size in, can't get out. |
| BTG (28) · MAG (28) · TMC (28) · METC | Scored below 30 — weak momentum, quality-over-torque profiles, or (METC) primarily a coal company. |
| NB (30) · FEAM (28) · PGE.V · SREMF · ALB | NB/FEAM: pre-production micro-caps ($8M EXIM award doesn't change FEAM's size). PGE.V and Sunrise/SREMF: real stories, auto-cut on liquidity — TSXV/OTC size most traders can't exit. ALB: global lithium major = commodity torque, not policy torque. |
| Sila · Niron · Standard Bauxite | The biggest government checks ($1.4B Sila, $150M Niron) went to private companies — unbuyable. Listed proxies for that money: USAR, UUUU, WWR. |
My take — your read.
Trade ideas like this, before they hit the timeline.
Join Nefarious →Prices & market caps compiled from Yahoo Finance, StockAnalysis, CNBC, Google Finance, Investing.com, WallStreetZen, MarketBeat, Junior Mining Network (Aug 4–8, 2026 — dates vary by name; live feed unavailable at compile time, so verify current quotes before entry). Rare-earth backdrop: Forbes, InvestingNews, Seeking Alpha (Aug 2026). Scores are the author's framework applied to this data.