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14 minutes with Olivia · Follow along by passage
Top 3 Deepfake Stocks. 6 screened, 3 survived.
$MITK · $YOU · $GEN
3 of 6
shipping deepfake defence, profitable, big enough to matter
Fraud losses from AI fakes are heading to $40 billion a year. Someone has to sell the lie detector.
Deloitte's Center for Financial Services expects generative AI to push US fraud losses from $12.3 billion in 2023 to $40 billion by 2027, a 32% a year climb. Identity firm Shufti's 2026 Identity Fraud Index says deepfake identity fraud is on track to rise 495% in 2026 over 2025 (reported by ASIS Security Management, June 2026). Entrust puts deepfakes at 40% of all biometric fraud it sees.
The Story.
In 2024 an Arup finance worker in Hong Kong wired about $25 million after a video call where every colleague on screen, including the CFO, was a deepfake. Every bank, employer and government portal now has to prove the person on the other end of the camera is real.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/04/asia/deepfake-cfo-scam-hong-kong-intl-hnk/index.html
My Top 3 DeepFake Companies.
$MITK
$0.8B cap
identity SaaS +37%
identity SaaS +37%
$YOU
$5.6B cap
revenue +27%, FCF margin 51%
revenue +27%, FCF margin 51%
$GEN
$13.2B cap
7x forward earnings
7x forward earnings
| MITK | YOU | GEN | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price, 2 Oct close | $17.75 | $41.55 | $21.99 |
| Market cap | $0.80B | $5.62B | $13.16B |
| Net cash | +$44M | +$850M | -$7.64B |
| Enterprise value | $0.76B | $4.77B | $20.81B |
| Latest quarter | $54.0M rev, +18%. Identity SaaS $24.8M, +37%. GAAP EPS $0.17 | $277.8M rev, +27%. Bookings $295.9M, +33%. GAAP EPS $0.49 | $1,336M rev, +6% reported (+11% adjusted). GAAP EPS $0.36 |
| This year's guide | FY26 revenue $195-200M; adjusted EBITDA margin 32-34% | Q3 revenue $284-287M; FY26 free cash flow at least $480M | FY27 revenue $5.375-5.475B; non-GAAP EPS $2.87-2.97 |
| Gross margin | 83.6% | 66.7% | 78.0% |
| Operating margin, TTM | 18.1% | 25.1% | 42.8% |
| Cash generation | FCF $25.3M in the quarter; $48.6M trailing (25% of revenue) | FCF $189M in the quarter; $508M trailing (51% of revenue) | FCF $430M in the quarter; $1.55B trailing (30% of revenue) |
| Deepfake revenue disclosed | Not alone. Identity SaaS segment $24.8M a quarter, +37% | No. CLEAR1 pipeline +50% quarter on quarter (call) | No. Feature inside Norton 360, 81M paid customers |
| Trailing P/E | 37.6x | 28.3x | 12.8x |
| Forward P/E | 16.1x | 18.3x | 7.3x |
| Profitable | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Intellicheck
Real product, real profit, but a $46M market cap on $5.9M of quarterly revenue. Down 55% in a year.
Digimarc
Co-leads the C2PA watermark standard, yet recurring revenue fell from $15.9M to $11.6M and it lost $12.1M last quarter on $8.8M of cash.
authID
$0.49M of quarterly revenue, $1.4M of cash, and a board exploring a sale (14 Aug 2026). Down 85% in a year.
MITK · Mitek Systems
MITK · $17.75 · $0.80B · the bank-grade lie detector for ID checksPick 1
WhatWhen you open a bank account on your phone, Mitek checks the ID photo, matches your face to it, and confirms a live person is holding the camera. Its Digital Fraud Defender (launched December 2024) adds detection of deepfake faces, injected video feeds and replayed frames, the exact tricks used to beat remote ID checks. It sits inside the MiVIP platform, which joined the FICO Marketplace on 13 May 2026 so banks can plug it into their fraud decisions.
WhoBanks and fintechs. Fraud and Identity SaaS revenue was $24.8M in the June quarter, up 37%, the fastest-growing line in this report. The other half of the company is check-fraud software: a top-five US bank joined its Check Fraud Defender consortium this quarter. Net cash $44M, free cash flow $48.6M over twelve months.
RiskHalf the revenue is checks, not identity ($25.0M of $54.0M). The stock is up 82% in a year and trades at 37.6x trailing earnings. Owned by no index of note, so it moves on thin volume.
YOU · CLEAR
YOU · $41.55 · $5.62B · the airport ID company selling identity to everyone elsePick 2
WhatCLEAR verified 43.5 million people, mostly at 62 airports. CLEAR1 sells that verified identity to other companies and governments, with PAD2-certified passive liveness that blocks deepfakes, masks and replays without asking you to turn your head. On the 5 August call it launched three tiers: Vertex, Apex and Helix, the top one rooted in witness verification for the highest-risk cases.
WhoMedicare.gov (contract announced 9 December 2025, live in early 2026) uses CLEAR1 for account creation and recovery. A federal partnership with GDIT followed on 20 May 2026. Management said the CLEAR1 pipeline grew over 50% quarter on quarter and net new signings rose over 50% sequentially. Free cash flow was $189M in one quarter, with $959M of cash and no borrowings.
RiskIdentity verification has no disclosed revenue number. The release does not split CLEAR1 out, so the deepfake story is a pipeline, not a line item. Short interest is 13.9% of the float. Gross margin is the lowest of the three at 66.7%.
GEN · Gen Digital
GEN · $21.99 · $13.16B · the deepfake detector on 81 million PCsPick 3
WhatGen owns Norton, Avast, LifeLock and MoneyLion. Norton Deepfake Protection (released 16 September 2025 with Intel) runs on the PC's own AI chip and flags cloned voices and manipulated video while you watch, starting with YouTube and Facebook. It also runs on Qualcomm Snapdragon X laptops and is live in the US, UK, Australia and New Zealand inside Norton 360.
Who81 million paid customers. Revenue $1.336B in the June quarter, free cash flow $430M, non-GAAP operating margin 50%. FY27 guidance was raised to $2.87-2.97 of EPS, and the stock trades at 7.3x that with a 2.3% dividend.
Risk$7.6B of net debt from the Avast and MoneyLion deals, and reported growth of 6%. The deepfake feature is a reason to keep paying for Norton, not a new revenue line, and the company itself calls agentic and AI revenue "modest" for FY27.
Note: Gen is not the purest pure play of the three. Deepfake protection is one feature inside Norton 360.
Where the moat comes from.
| MITK | YOU | GEN | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pricing power | Per-transaction fees to banks that cannot afford a fraud miss; 83.6% gross margin | Subscriptions ($209 a year for CLEAR+) plus per-verification fees to partners | Consumer subscriptions with price rises; 78% gross margin |
| Customer lock | Embedded in bank onboarding flows and the Check Fraud Defender consortium; now inside FICO's decisioning marketplace | 43.5M verified identities that re-verify in seconds; a federal contract that takes years to win | Pre-installed on new PCs; 81M paying households already in the billing system |
| Who is coming for it | Private specialists (iProov, Jumio, Socure, Persona) and Microsoft Entra Verified ID | ID.me and Login.gov in government; Okta and Microsoft in workforce identity | Microsoft Defender for free; McAfee; the browser and the phone maker |
| Where safety comes from | The product | The network of verified people | The price |
| What it is | Small compounder taking share | Cash machine with a second act | Value stock with a hook |
Bear, base, bull.
Each scenario is a multiple on next year's earnings. For Mitek and CLEAR the earnings figure is what the market already implies (price divided by forward P/E, so $1.10 and $2.27, calculated). For Gen it is the midpoint of its own FY27 guide, $2.92. The multiples are mine; the earnings are not.
| MITK $17.75 | YOU $41.55 | GEN $21.99 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $13. Check volumes shrink and identity growth slows to the teens, 12x on $1.10 | $32. CLEAR1 stays a pipeline and airport growth normalises, 14x on $2.27 | $17. Subscriber churn rises and debt keeps the multiple at 6x on $2.92 |
| Base | $18. Guide delivered, identity SaaS keeps growing 30%+, 16x on $1.10 | $41. FCF guide of $480M met, pipeline converts slowly, 18x on $2.27 | $21. Guide delivered, 7.3x on $2.92 |
| Bull | $24. Deepfake detection becomes a required bank control and FICO distribution lands, 22x on $1.10 | $55. CLEAR1 gets its own disclosed revenue line and Medicare proves the government playbook, 24x on $2.27 | $26. Deepfake protection lifts retention and debt comes down, 9x on $2.92 |
Not financial advice. Please do your own research.
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Sources
Hook: Deloitte Center for Financial Services, "Generative AI is expected to magnify the risk of deepfakes and other fraud in banking" ($12.3B in 2023 to $40B by 2027, 32% CAGR); Shufti Identity Fraud Index 2026 via ASIS Security Management, June 2026 (495% rise in deepfake identity fraud in 2026); Entrust (deepfakes 40% of biometric fraud) via Bright Defense deepfake statistics, March 2026; Arup Hong Kong deepfake video-call loss of about $25M, widely reported February 2024; Pindrop customer claim per Pindrop and press coverage, 2026. Hong Kong story: CNN, 4 February 2024. Prices, market caps, enterprise values, P/E, margins, TTM figures and short interest: StockAnalysis, 2 October 2026 closes. Mitek: fiscal Q3 2026 release, 8-K Exhibit 99.1, 6 August 2026 (revenue $54.0M +18%, Fraud and Identity SaaS $24.8M +37%, check verification $25.0M, GAAP EPS $0.17, cash and investments $100.2M, term loan about $49M, FY26 guide $195-200M and 32-34% adjusted EBITDA margin); Digital Fraud Defender launch, Mitek press release, December 2024; FICO Marketplace partnership, Business Wire, 13 May 2026. CLEAR: Q2 2026 release, 8-K Exhibit 99.1, 5 August 2026 (revenue $277.8M +26.6%, bookings $295.9M +32.8%, operating income $83.0M, net income $72.3M, GAAP diluted EPS $0.49, operating cash flow $201.2M, FCF $189.0M, 43.5M members, 8.3M active CLEAR+, cash $128.2M plus securities $831.0M, Q3 guide $284-287M, FY26 FCF at least $480M); Q2 2026 earnings call, 5 August 2026 (Vertex, Apex, Helix; pipeline over 50% quarter on quarter); CMS Medicare.gov contract, CLEAR press release, 9 December 2025; GDIT collaboration, 20 May 2026; CLEAR1 liveness per identity.clearme.com. Gen Digital: Q1 FY27 release, 8-K Exhibit 99.01, 6 August 2026 (revenue $1.336B +6% reported, +11% adjusted for the 14th week in Q1 FY26 and MoneyLion, GAAP diluted EPS $0.36, non-GAAP EPS $0.71, operating cash flow $434M, FCF $430M, cash $564M, debt $8.156B, 81M paid customers, FY27 guide revenue $5.375-5.475B and EPS $2.87-2.97); Norton Deepfake Protection with Intel, PR Newswire, 16 September 2025; Qualcomm Snapdragon X availability per Gen blog. Screened-out names: Intellicheck Q2 2026 release, 13 August 2026; Digimarc Q2 2026 release, 13 August 2026; authID Q2 2026 release, 14 August 2026.
Calculated by me: implied forward EPS = price divided by StockAnalysis forward P/E (MITK $17.75 / 16.09 = $1.10; YOU $41.55 / 18.29 = $2.27); Gen scenarios use the $2.92 midpoint of its own guide. Scenario prices = multiple times EPS, rounded to the dollar. Net cash = cash and investments minus debt and convertible notes; CLEAR's $110M of "debt" on StockAnalysis is lease liabilities and the release reports no borrowings. Not disclosed anywhere: deepfake-detection revenue or market share for any of the three. Estimated dates: Mitek's next earnings date (early November) is based on last year's timing. Checked and left out: I could not open the CLEAR Q2 call transcript on Yahoo directly; the Vertex/Apex/Helix and pipeline quotes come from the transcript summary dated 5 August 2026.
Whose opinion is whose: the numbers table is sourced company data. The card descriptions, the ranking, the moat table and the bear, base and bull scenarios are my framing of it.
Hook: Deloitte Center for Financial Services, "Generative AI is expected to magnify the risk of deepfakes and other fraud in banking" ($12.3B in 2023 to $40B by 2027, 32% CAGR); Shufti Identity Fraud Index 2026 via ASIS Security Management, June 2026 (495% rise in deepfake identity fraud in 2026); Entrust (deepfakes 40% of biometric fraud) via Bright Defense deepfake statistics, March 2026; Arup Hong Kong deepfake video-call loss of about $25M, widely reported February 2024; Pindrop customer claim per Pindrop and press coverage, 2026. Hong Kong story: CNN, 4 February 2024. Prices, market caps, enterprise values, P/E, margins, TTM figures and short interest: StockAnalysis, 2 October 2026 closes. Mitek: fiscal Q3 2026 release, 8-K Exhibit 99.1, 6 August 2026 (revenue $54.0M +18%, Fraud and Identity SaaS $24.8M +37%, check verification $25.0M, GAAP EPS $0.17, cash and investments $100.2M, term loan about $49M, FY26 guide $195-200M and 32-34% adjusted EBITDA margin); Digital Fraud Defender launch, Mitek press release, December 2024; FICO Marketplace partnership, Business Wire, 13 May 2026. CLEAR: Q2 2026 release, 8-K Exhibit 99.1, 5 August 2026 (revenue $277.8M +26.6%, bookings $295.9M +32.8%, operating income $83.0M, net income $72.3M, GAAP diluted EPS $0.49, operating cash flow $201.2M, FCF $189.0M, 43.5M members, 8.3M active CLEAR+, cash $128.2M plus securities $831.0M, Q3 guide $284-287M, FY26 FCF at least $480M); Q2 2026 earnings call, 5 August 2026 (Vertex, Apex, Helix; pipeline over 50% quarter on quarter); CMS Medicare.gov contract, CLEAR press release, 9 December 2025; GDIT collaboration, 20 May 2026; CLEAR1 liveness per identity.clearme.com. Gen Digital: Q1 FY27 release, 8-K Exhibit 99.01, 6 August 2026 (revenue $1.336B +6% reported, +11% adjusted for the 14th week in Q1 FY26 and MoneyLion, GAAP diluted EPS $0.36, non-GAAP EPS $0.71, operating cash flow $434M, FCF $430M, cash $564M, debt $8.156B, 81M paid customers, FY27 guide revenue $5.375-5.475B and EPS $2.87-2.97); Norton Deepfake Protection with Intel, PR Newswire, 16 September 2025; Qualcomm Snapdragon X availability per Gen blog. Screened-out names: Intellicheck Q2 2026 release, 13 August 2026; Digimarc Q2 2026 release, 13 August 2026; authID Q2 2026 release, 14 August 2026.
Calculated by me: implied forward EPS = price divided by StockAnalysis forward P/E (MITK $17.75 / 16.09 = $1.10; YOU $41.55 / 18.29 = $2.27); Gen scenarios use the $2.92 midpoint of its own guide. Scenario prices = multiple times EPS, rounded to the dollar. Net cash = cash and investments minus debt and convertible notes; CLEAR's $110M of "debt" on StockAnalysis is lease liabilities and the release reports no borrowings. Not disclosed anywhere: deepfake-detection revenue or market share for any of the three. Estimated dates: Mitek's next earnings date (early November) is based on last year's timing. Checked and left out: I could not open the CLEAR Q2 call transcript on Yahoo directly; the Vertex/Apex/Helix and pipeline quotes come from the transcript summary dated 5 August 2026.
Whose opinion is whose: the numbers table is sourced company data. The card descriptions, the ranking, the moat table and the bear, base and bull scenarios are my framing of it.
One trader's view, not investment advice. Do your own research. Every figure is date-stamped above.