Nefarious Trading Est 2021
⏱ 5 min read Disclosure · Vol. 01 No. 80 · August 2026
TRANSACTIONS21,285 NAMES2,356 PURCHASE PRICES DISCLOSEDZERO TRADES OVER $1M83 AGE OF DATA8–19 MONTHS TIMING SIGNALNONE LATE FEES PAIDYES TRANSACTIONS21,285 NAMES2,356 PURCHASE PRICES DISCLOSEDZERO TRADES OVER $1M83 AGE OF DATA8–19 MONTHS TIMING SIGNALNONE LATE FEES PAIDYES
Public Filing · OGE Form 278e · Calendar Year 2025
The 21,285 Trades
927 pages · parsed in full · nothing tradeable in it
21,285
trades · 2,356 names

Twenty-one thousand trades, and not one purchase price. Here is the part you can use.

Trump 2025 Trades
§ The Filing

There is nothing here you can trade.

21,285
transactions
in the filing
2,356
different
stocks
$0
prices
disclosed
8–19
months old
on arrival
In Plain English

You cannot see what he paid, because the form does not report prices — only a range like "somewhere between $15,001 and $50,000." You cannot act on the timing, because the trades happened across 2025 and the document only became public in late June 2026. By the time anyone reads it, every trade in it is between eight and nineteen months old.

So when a headline says "Trump just bought X" — he didn't. The paperwork arrived; the trade is ancient. This is a compliance record, not a signal, and it was never designed to be one.

What follows is the only part worth your time: what the account structure tells you, the one day that actually mattered, and a test you can reuse on filings that are timely.

§ The Shape

Eighty-three percent is rebalancing noise.

★ $1,001 – $15,00010,953
★ $15,001 – $50,0006,795
$50,001 – $100,0001,830
$100,001 – $250,0001,172
$250,001 – $500,000314
$500,001 – $1,000,000138
$1,000,001 – $5,000,00076
$5,000,001 – $25,000,0006
$25,000,001 – $50,000,0001

The two starred bands are 83% of every trade in the filing. Only 83 trades all year reached $1,000,001 — four tenths of one percent. Skip straight to those.

AccountTradesNamesDatesWhat it is
★ #710,3111,5295548% of the filing on its own
#83,97272531Small lots; holds the cash
★ #62,13045840Every $5M+ equity buy is here
#11,75752613Only 13 dates — big rebalances
#51,65722422High turnover, short name list
#472036527Cash management
#2 / #3369 ea191 ea8 eaIdentical twins — one order, two sleeves

Nobody picks 1,529 stocks. Account #7 alone carries half the filing, and #2 and #3 are byte-identical. This is a model allocating, not a person deciding. If you only read one sleeve, read #6 — it is where the conviction-sized trades live.

§ The Names

What was actually held at year end.

CompanySectorHeld at
31 Dec 25
Largest single
trade in 2025
Mkt capP/E
MicrosoftMSFTCloud$5M–25M$5,000,001 – $25,000,000$3.59T26.9
Meta PlatformsMETAAds$5M–25M$1,000,001 – $5,000,000$1.40T20.7
BroadcomAVGOSemis$5M–25M$1,000,001 – $5,000,000$1.75T61.3
AppleAAPLConsumer tech$5M–25M$5,000,001 – $25,000,000$4.51T35.5
NVIDIANVDASemis$5M–25M$5,000,001 – $25,000,000$5.20T32.9
ComcastCMCSACable/media$1M–5M$500,001 – $1,000,000$95.3B8.7
NetflixNFLXStreaming$1M–5M$1,000,001 – $5,000,000$331.4B25.1
ExxonMobilXOMOil & gas$1M–5M$500,001 – $1,000,000$678.9B21.3
ChevronCVXOil & gas$1M–5M$500,001 – $1,000,000$402.7B19.7
UnitedHealthUNHManaged care$1M–5M$1,000,001 – $5,000,000$350.2B25.1
Duke EnergyDUKUtility$1M–5M$1,000,001 – $5,000,000$93.5B18.0
AbbVieABBVPharma$1M–5M$500,001 – $1,000,000$468.2B74.9
PalantirPLTRAI software$1M–5M$500,001 – $1,000,000$432.4B153.9
BoeingBAAero/defense$1M–5M$500,001 – $1,000,000$169.3B79.9
QualcommQCOMSemis$1M–5M$250,001 – $500,000$171.7B18.7
MicronMUMemory$1M–5M$250,001 – $500,000$1.09T21.8
IntelINTCSemis$1M–5M$250,001 – $500,000$473.3Bn/a
Lockheed MartinLMTDefense$1M–5M$250,001 – $500,000$130.1B20.8
Adv. Micro DevicesAMDSemis$1M–5M$500,001 – $1,000,000$772.6B120.8
Applied MaterialsAMATSemi equip$1M–5M$250,001 – $500,000$390.7B42.5
PepsiCoPEPStaples$500k–1M$250,001 – $500,000$195.8B18.8
AmgenAMGNBiotech$500k–1M$250,001 – $500,000$237.5B27.3
Gilead SciencesGILDBiopharma$500k–1M$250,001 – $500,000$181.2Bn/a
PfizerPFEPharma$500k–1M$250,001 – $500,000$160.0B36.9
AppLovinAPPAdtech$500k–1M$1,000,001 – $5,000,000$102.3B23.5
Texas InstrumentsTXNSemis$500k–1M$500,001 – $1,000,000$241.4B40.2
StarbucksSBUXRestaurants$250k–500k$500,001 – $1,000,000$122.1B61.5
ConocoPhillipsCOPOil E&P$250k–500k$250,001 – $500,000$162.0B17.9
RegeneronREGNBiotech$250k–500k$250,001 – $500,000$83.3B20.6
NewmontNEMGold$250k–500k$250,001 – $500,000$138.3B16.7
Freeport-McMoRanFCXCopper$250k–500k$100,001 – $250,000$110.1B37.6
Howmet AerospaceHWMAero parts$250k–500k$100,001 – $250,000$108.4B58.6
General DynamicsGDDefense$250k–500k$250,001 – $500,000$103.8B23.4
NucorNUESteel$250k–500k$100,001 – $250,000$55.3B19.5
EOG ResourcesEOGShale E&P$100k–250k$250,001 – $500,000$80.3B12.0
Devon EnergyDVNShale E&P$100k–250k$100,001 – $250,000$56.5B10.5
L3HarrisLHXDefense$100k–250k$100,001 – $250,000$49.7B27.0
Steel DynamicsSTLDSteel$100k–250k$100,001 – $250,000$32.8B20.8
Axon EnterpriseAXONPublic safety$50k–100k$100,001 – $250,000$51.0B261.1
CoinbaseCOINCrypto$15k–50k$250,001 – $500,000$49.2Bn/a
Blue Owl CapitalOWLAlt manager$1k–15k$1,000,001 – $5,000,000$18.2B97.8
Strategy IncMSTRBitcoin treasury$1k–15k$15,001 – $50,000$45.8Bn/a
Kratos DefenseKTOSDrones<$1k$1,000,001 – $5,000,000$10.7B347.3

Sorted by year-end holding, from Part 6 — a position, not a flow. The five starred names are the only ones held at $5M+. Kratos is the lesson: thirteen trades in 2025 including a $1–5M sale on 31 December, and a year-end holding of under $1,000. The position was closed. Trade counts would never have told you. Crypto exposure is trivial — Coinbase ends at $15–50k, Strategy at $1–15k.

§ The Timing Test

Every timing story here dies on the base rate.

Sector basketHit rate on random datesVerdict
★ Pharma100.0%Meaningless
★ Big tech100.0%Meaningless
★ Crypto100.0%Meaningless
★ Nuclear100.0%Meaningless
★ Metals100.0%Meaningless
Drones96.3%Meaningless
Alt managers96.1%Meaningless

2,000 random dates per basket, ±14-day window. Every calendar day of 2025 — 365 of 365 — sits within fourteen days of a trade date. No date you could pick would look "far from" trading. Median gap: two days.

Two apparent hits run backwards. The 12 May drug-pricing order is negative for pharma — the accounts bought Pfizer, Merck, Amgen, AbbVie, Bristol and Lilly around it. The 19 September H-1B charge hits big tech — they were buying Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon in the three days prior. Front-running looks like selling into bad news. This is a calendar.

§ What To Do

Four things. Trading this filing is not one.

1
Read Part 6 above $1M, not Part 7. Part 7 is 21,285 rows of sub-$50k noise with no position sizes. Only 283 of 6,099 Part 6 holding lines clear $1M. That filter turns the whole filing into about thirty names in ten minutes — then go back to Part 7 for those names only.
2
Run the base rate before believing any timing claim. Works on congressional STOCK Act filings and insider Form 4s too. Before reporting a trade "near" an event, ask how often a random date does the same. Here it was 96–100%, and it took ten minutes. Most timing stories die at this step.
3
Watch the 278-Ts, not the annual. The periodic report is due 45 days after a trade — that is the only filing with any freshness. Page 1 confirms some trades here missed it. Reconciling Part 7 against the individual 278-Ts identifies exactly which, and that work is public and undone.
4
Stop treating the release date as the news date. "Trump just bought X in June" means the document dropped in June. The trade was eight to nineteen months earlier. A 278e is a compliance record and was never a signal.

Not financial advice — please do your own research.

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Nefarious Trading
Equity research and trading commentary — AI infrastructure, semiconductors, aerospace, energy, commodities.
AuthorJohnny Li
Sources
Primary: Donald J. Trump, OGE Form 278e Annual Report for calendar year 2025, 927 pages, OGE Received 6/29/2026. Part 7 (Transactions), pages 159–845, parsed in full — 21,285 rows via pdfplumber word-coordinate reconstruction, validated against the filing's own sequential row numbering. Part 6 (Other Assets and Income), pages 7–158 — 6,099 holding lines. Reviewing official comment quoted verbatim from page 1, initialled DJB, dated 6/30/26. An earlier flat-text pass recovered only 6,558 rows because the PDF renders description and amount columns as separate text blocks on most pages.

Market data via stockanalysis.com at the close of 21 August 2026 — roughly eight months after the final transaction in the filing. Four names are loss-making on a trailing basis. Netflix reflects its ten-for-one split of 17 November 2025; Exxon now files as ExxonMobil Holdings after a 2026 one-for-one redomiciliation.

Calculated, not disclosed: all counts, band distributions, account splits, per-ticker aggregates and holding ranks are computed from the parsed filing. The base-rate test draws 2,000 random dates per sector basket from 1 Jan – 31 Dec 2025 and measures the share producing at least one transaction in that basket within ±14 days.

Stated as absent: the filing discloses no purchase or sale prices, no share counts and no Part 7 position sizes — only bracketed ranges. It contains no reference to a blind trust or qualified diversified trust, and never identifies who placed any order. That the accounts are managed under a discretionary mandate is inferred from the trading pattern and is not stated in the document. The reviewing official confirms late fees were paid for transactions not previously reported on 278-Ts but does not say how many, which, or by how long.
One trader's view — not investment advice. Do your own research. This is a reading of a public government filing; it makes no claim about anyone's intent, and states throughout where the document is silent.