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13 minutes with Olivia · Follow along by passage
Top 3 Solar Stocks. Nine Screened, Three Survived.
$FSLR · $NXT · $SHLS
3 of 9
profitable, net cash or close, outside the glut
Elon says solar wins. Texas already shows it happening.
Musk says solar will utterly dominate future electricity production. He is backing it with steel: SpaceX and Tesla are each building 100 GW a year of solar capacity.
His caveat: gas is still needed for several years to bootstrap it. The EIA disagrees on the destination, seeing solar near 20% by 2050 against his 100%.
Texas already shows the shape. Solar passed nuclear, then coal, in about six years.
ERCOT generation, trailing twelve months, TWh
Solar crossed nuclear around 2024 and coal around 2025. Gas grew the whole time.
So demand is not the question. Who gets paid for it is.
Most listed solar companies still lose money, because China makes panels below cost and the whole world buys at that price. Being right about solar is not the same as making money from it.
The screen was simple. Profitable. Balance sheet that does not need the market. Sitting outside the Chinese silicon glut. Nine names went in. Three came out.
$FSLR
$21.6B cap
$1.69B net cash
$1.69B net cash
$NXT
$12.3B cap
$1.20B net cash
$1.20B net cash
$SHLS
$1.28B cap
11x forward earnings
11x forward earnings
| FSLR | NXT | SHLS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | ~$201 | $82.99 | $7.50 |
| Market cap | $21.6B | $12.3B | $1.28B |
| Net cash | +$1.69B | +$1.20B | −$120M |
| Enterprise value | $19.9B | $11.1B | $1.4B |
| Latest quarter | $1.06B rev, down 4%. EPS $3.92 | $935M rev, record. EPS $1.20, beat | $163M rev, up 47%. EPS $0.12, beat |
| This year's guide | $4.9–5.2B sales | $4.1–4.4B sales, EPS $4.42–4.73, raised | $560–600M sales, reaffirmed |
| Gross margin | 48.5% | 34.5% | 30.3% |
| Operating margin | 38.5% | 20.4% | 11.7% |
| Cash generation | $769M op cash flow, H1 | $514M free cash flow, FY26 | $65–85M op cash flow, guided |
| Backlog | $13.6B, 45.1 GW | $5.5B+ | $801M |
| Trailing P/E | 12.4x | 20.8x | 40x |
| Forward P/E | 13.8x | 18.1x | 11.2x |
| Profitable | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Array
Same trackers as Nextpower at one seventeenth the price, but $350M or more of net debt and losing share on uneven ground. The high-beta way to own NXT's market, not a pillar.
Enphase
Best gross margin in solar at 44 to 47%, but revenue is flat and a third of last quarter was customers stockpiling before the residential credit expired.
Fluence
$6.4B of backlog at a 5% margin. Factory delays in Houston pushed $400M into next year.
Sunrun
A consumer finance company with $10.3B of debt that happens to install panels.
Canadian
$5.25B of net debt, a Chinese-listed factory under a Canadian name, and a 45X credit nobody has confirmed.
Jinko
Ships the most panels on earth at a 6% margin. Chinese names excluded on purpose.
FSLR · First Solar
FSLR · ~$201 · $21.6B · the contracted onePick 1
BullThe only panel maker whose customers are locked in by their own tax credit. Lightsource bp, Silicon Ranch, Leeward, Origis and Intersect (now Google) sign multi-year deals at $0.36/W because the project does not get financed without a domestic panel. No polysilicon, so the December tariff wall hits competitors and not First Solar. $15.70 a share of net cash under the price.
BearThe margin is Washington's. Guidance assumes $2.10–2.19B of 45X credits inside a $2.4–2.6B gross profit. Strip them and product margin is 6 to 8 percent. Thin film tops out near 23% efficiency while Chinese TOPCon runs 25%, so the Evolar perovskite work has to land by 2028. And the tariff annex lists the thin-film code too, while First Solar still imports 0.7 to 0.8 GW a quarter.
NXT · Nextpower
NXT · $82.99 · $12.3B · the one that earns itPick 2
BullThe only tier-one name with no subsidy inside the margin. Over 35% of the global tracker market, 160 GW installed. Trackers are 10 to 12% of project cost, the independent-row design saves developers grading money on uneven land, and NX Navigator stows the panels before hail arrives. Steel plus software: no tariff wall, no glut. Gets paid whether the panel is thin film or silicon. Record Q1, EPS beat, guide raised to $4.42–4.73.
BearRevenue books on delivery, so every interconnection delay in PJM and MISO shows up as a light quarter even when the order is safe. At 18x forward it is priced for none of those slips to matter. It is now spending $50M to enter power conversion and storage, which is new territory against Fluence and Tesla. Steel spikes without pass-through compress margin fast.
SHLS · Shoals
SHLS · $7.50 · $1.28B · the cheap picks and shovelsPick 3
BullThe wiring harness replaces underground electrician labour and is a few percent of project cost, so nobody value-engineers it out. Growth is already sold: $700M of the $801M backlog ships in the next four quarters. Beat on EPS, $0.12 against $0.10, consensus target $10.71. In June the ITC ruled Voltage infringed Shoals' patents and issued an exclusion order barring the imported copycats. New Portland, Tennessee plant supports 42 GW a year once it ramps.
BearNextpower is coming for this business. It bought Bentek for $78M, shipped NX PowerMerge this spring and patented it in August: a trunk bus that runs along its own tracker, sold in the same RFP. The ITC keeps the Asian copycats out and does nothing about the American one. Seven points of margin gone in a year, a $70M securities settlement paid, and the Prysmian wire case still open.
Be clear about what pick three is. First Solar and Nextpower are fortresses. Shoals is a turnaround at 11x earnings whose biggest competitor is pick two. That is why it is third and not a tie.
Where the moat comes from.
| FSLR | NXT | SHLS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pricing power | Trade policy and domestic content rules. US bookings at $0.36/W against a $0.12 world price | Independent-row trackers follow uneven ground, so the developer skips the grading bill. Hail stow software on top | Above-ground moulded harness replaces trenching and master electricians with general labour |
| Margin without subsidy | 6–8% | 34.5% | 30.3% |
| Customer lock | Buyer's own tax credit needs a domestic panel. Multi-year deals with BP, Shell-backed Silicon Ranch, Google via Intersect | Over 35% global share, 160 GW installed, and now bundling wiring, foundations and storage into one contract | Patents. ITC exclusion order in June barred the imported copycats |
| Who is coming for it | Chinese TOPCon on efficiency, 23% against thin film's 19 to 20% | Array on price, Fluence and Tesla in the new storage push | Nextpower. NX PowerMerge runs the trunk bus along its own tracker |
| Where safety comes from | The law | The product | The price |
| What it is | Policy-protected cash machine | Compounder taking share | Cheap turnaround |
Bear, base, bull.
Multiples times earnings. First Solar and Shoals use the earnings power in the September dossier. Nextpower uses its own raised guide of $4.42 to $4.73, because the dossier's Nextpower numbers were built off a stale $60 price.
| FSLR ~$201 | NXT $83 | SHLS $7.50 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $120–135. Congress halves 45X after 2027, bookings under 2 GW a quarter, 9x. Floor is $15.70 of net cash a share | ~$62. Deliveries slip into fiscal 2028, steel eats margin to 30%, 14x on $4.42 | $4.20–4.80. Loses Prysmian, absorbs $50M+, PowerMerge takes 15% share, 8x on $0.55 |
| Base | $210–230. 45X intact to 2030, sales $5.0–5.3B, 14x on $15–16 | ~$82. Guide delivered, 18x on $4.58. That is today's price | $9.50–11. Portland ramps, margin back to 34%, claims capped, 14x on $0.75 |
| Bull | $290–320. Perovskite tandem hits 25%, new plants booked to 2032, 18x on $17.50 | ~$104. PowerMerge and storage land, hyperscalers pull projects forward, 22x on $4.73 | $14–16. Wins Prysmian outright, storage revenue $20M to $80M, 18x on $0.90 |
Not financial advice. Please do your own research.
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Sources
Elon Musk's solar comments are from his X account, most recently 11 September 2026, the January 2026 World Economic Forum session and Tesla's Q4 2025 earnings call, including the 100 GW per year target for both SpaceX and Tesla and the point about natural gas bootstrapping solar. The EIA's roughly 20% by 2050 figure is the counterpoint to his claim. The ERCOT chart is redrawn from ERCOT trailing-twelve-month generation data and is directional rather than exact. Prices as of 17–18 September 2026: First Solar about $201 intraday 18 September, Nextpower $82.99 and Shoals $7.50 at 17 September close. Market caps: FSLR $21.6B, NXT $12.3B, SHLS $1.28B. First Solar figures from its 30 July Q2 release and 2026 guidance, including the $2.10–2.19B Section 45X assumption in the guidance footnotes; net cash of $1.73B cash and securities against $37.6M of leases and credit lines; customer volumes from announced supply agreements with Lightsource bp, Silicon Ranch, Intersect Power, Leeward and Origis; Google's $4.75B acquisition of Intersect announced 22 December 2025. Ex-subsidy margin calculated as $2.4–2.6B gross profit less $2.10–2.19B credits over $4.9–5.2B sales. Nextpower (formerly Nextracker, renamed November 2025) figures from its fiscal 2026 results: $3.56B revenue, adjusted EPS $4.50, 34.5% adjusted gross margin, 20.4% operating margin, $513.6M free cash flow, $1.2B cash, 160 GW cumulative shipments; and its fiscal Q1 2027 release of late July 2026: $935M record revenue, $1.20 adjusted EPS, backlog above $5.5B, fiscal 2027 guidance raised to $4.1–4.4B revenue and $4.42–4.73 adjusted EPS including about $50M of planned power conversion entry costs. Forward P/E of 18.1x is calculated as $82.99 over the $4.58 guide midpoint. Nextpower scenario prices are calculated as the stated multiple times the stated EPS; the dossier's own Nextpower scenarios were discarded because they were built on a $60.50 price and $2.85–3.90 EPS that do not match the company's reported figures. Bentek acquisition of about $78M announced with fiscal 2025 results; NX PowerMerge introduced September 2025, shipping from spring 2026, patent issued August 2026 per Solar Power World. Shoals figures from its 4 August Q2 release: $163.4M revenue, $0.12 adjusted EPS, $801.4M backlog and awarded orders of which $699.7M is scheduled through Q2 2027, 30.3% GAAP gross margin against 37.2% a year earlier. ITC final determination against Voltage LLC and limited exclusion order per pv magazine USA, 2 July 2026, and the Shoals release of 25 June 2026. $70M securities class action settlement with claims due 25 August 2026. Prysmian case is Shoals Technologies Group LLC v. Prysmian Cables and Systems USA LLC, Middle District of Tennessee, filed October 2023, still open. Portland, Tennessee 638,000 square foot facility and 42 GW capacity from company disclosures. Consensus target $10.71, 40x trailing P/E and $1.28B market cap per MarketBeat, 17 September. Enterprise values, trailing and forward P/E for FSLR and SHLS, and First Solar and Shoals scenario ranges are from the September 2026 comparative dossier, checked against company releases where possible. Items in that dossier that could not be verified were left out: the hyperscaler tripartite contract structure, the 15 to 20% insurance saving from hail stow, the CRU steel index clause, the man-hour figures for wire installation, and the count of Nextpower partner factories. The dossier's 45X rate of $0.12/W for modules is also wrong; the statutory module credit is $0.07/W, with the roughly $0.17/W total for an integrated thin-film module coming from stacking the module, cell and wafer-equivalent credits. The ITC final determination was June 2026 following a February preliminary ruling, not late 2025. Companies screened out use figures from their most recent quarterly releases as covered in the companion piece. Section 232 polysilicon terms, effective 4 December 2026: 15% ad valorem plus minimum import prices including $0.38/W on modules.
Whose opinion is whose: the numbers table is sourced company data. Bull, Bear, the ranking and the scenario ranges are my framing of it.
Elon Musk's solar comments are from his X account, most recently 11 September 2026, the January 2026 World Economic Forum session and Tesla's Q4 2025 earnings call, including the 100 GW per year target for both SpaceX and Tesla and the point about natural gas bootstrapping solar. The EIA's roughly 20% by 2050 figure is the counterpoint to his claim. The ERCOT chart is redrawn from ERCOT trailing-twelve-month generation data and is directional rather than exact. Prices as of 17–18 September 2026: First Solar about $201 intraday 18 September, Nextpower $82.99 and Shoals $7.50 at 17 September close. Market caps: FSLR $21.6B, NXT $12.3B, SHLS $1.28B. First Solar figures from its 30 July Q2 release and 2026 guidance, including the $2.10–2.19B Section 45X assumption in the guidance footnotes; net cash of $1.73B cash and securities against $37.6M of leases and credit lines; customer volumes from announced supply agreements with Lightsource bp, Silicon Ranch, Intersect Power, Leeward and Origis; Google's $4.75B acquisition of Intersect announced 22 December 2025. Ex-subsidy margin calculated as $2.4–2.6B gross profit less $2.10–2.19B credits over $4.9–5.2B sales. Nextpower (formerly Nextracker, renamed November 2025) figures from its fiscal 2026 results: $3.56B revenue, adjusted EPS $4.50, 34.5% adjusted gross margin, 20.4% operating margin, $513.6M free cash flow, $1.2B cash, 160 GW cumulative shipments; and its fiscal Q1 2027 release of late July 2026: $935M record revenue, $1.20 adjusted EPS, backlog above $5.5B, fiscal 2027 guidance raised to $4.1–4.4B revenue and $4.42–4.73 adjusted EPS including about $50M of planned power conversion entry costs. Forward P/E of 18.1x is calculated as $82.99 over the $4.58 guide midpoint. Nextpower scenario prices are calculated as the stated multiple times the stated EPS; the dossier's own Nextpower scenarios were discarded because they were built on a $60.50 price and $2.85–3.90 EPS that do not match the company's reported figures. Bentek acquisition of about $78M announced with fiscal 2025 results; NX PowerMerge introduced September 2025, shipping from spring 2026, patent issued August 2026 per Solar Power World. Shoals figures from its 4 August Q2 release: $163.4M revenue, $0.12 adjusted EPS, $801.4M backlog and awarded orders of which $699.7M is scheduled through Q2 2027, 30.3% GAAP gross margin against 37.2% a year earlier. ITC final determination against Voltage LLC and limited exclusion order per pv magazine USA, 2 July 2026, and the Shoals release of 25 June 2026. $70M securities class action settlement with claims due 25 August 2026. Prysmian case is Shoals Technologies Group LLC v. Prysmian Cables and Systems USA LLC, Middle District of Tennessee, filed October 2023, still open. Portland, Tennessee 638,000 square foot facility and 42 GW capacity from company disclosures. Consensus target $10.71, 40x trailing P/E and $1.28B market cap per MarketBeat, 17 September. Enterprise values, trailing and forward P/E for FSLR and SHLS, and First Solar and Shoals scenario ranges are from the September 2026 comparative dossier, checked against company releases where possible. Items in that dossier that could not be verified were left out: the hyperscaler tripartite contract structure, the 15 to 20% insurance saving from hail stow, the CRU steel index clause, the man-hour figures for wire installation, and the count of Nextpower partner factories. The dossier's 45X rate of $0.12/W for modules is also wrong; the statutory module credit is $0.07/W, with the roughly $0.17/W total for an integrated thin-film module coming from stacking the module, cell and wafer-equivalent credits. The ITC final determination was June 2026 following a February preliminary ruling, not late 2025. Companies screened out use figures from their most recent quarterly releases as covered in the companion piece. Section 232 polysilicon terms, effective 4 December 2026: 15% ad valorem plus minimum import prices including $0.38/W on modules.
Whose opinion is whose: the numbers table is sourced company data. Bull, Bear, the ranking and the scenario ranges are my framing of it.
One trader's view, not investment advice. Do your own research. Every figure is date-stamped above.