Nefarious Trading Est 2021
⏱ 13 min read Policy · Vol. 01 No. 81 · August 2026
ACTIONS RATED126 FIVE-STAR16 IMPOSE A DUTY48 ORDER A STUDY78 IEEPA TARIFFSSTRUCK DOWN 2/20/26 SEC 122EXPIRED 7/24/26 SEC 338 CANADA50% LIVE 8/22/26 NEXT DATEUAS 100% ON 9/3/26 ACTIONS RATED126 FIVE-STAR16 IMPOSE A DUTY48 ORDER A STUDY78 IEEPA TARIFFSSTRUCK DOWN 2/20/26 SEC 122EXPIRED 7/24/26 SEC 338 CANADA50% LIVE 8/22/26 NEXT DATEUAS 100% ON 9/3/26
Policy Map · Rated & Reverse-Chronological · Jan 2025 – Aug 2026
The Policy Pipeline
Every market-relevant action, newest first, scored 1–5
126
actions rated · 10 sectors
§ What We Did

We read every presidential action of 2026. Five of them matter.

Presidential Actions
What a presidential action actually is

The President can change the rules for a company without going through Congress. He signs one of three things. An executive order tells federal agencies to do something. A proclamation is the one that sets tariff rates — if a duty is being imposed, it almost always lives here. A memorandum instructs one named official, and is usually the opening move of a trade investigation rather than the end of one.

Only some of them actually cost a company money. The rest tell an agency to go and study a problem, which can take a year to turn into anything and often never does. That distinction — a real obligation with a date on it, versus an instruction to investigate — is the entire difference between a tradeable event and a headline. It is the first thing we filtered on.

We read every executive order, proclamation and memorandum signed in 2026 and scored each one on a single question: can it move a stock you can name? Everything that could not was deleted, not greyed out. 26 survived. Here is what is left, and the filter that gets from those 26 to the five worth acting on.

actions that can move a stock26
− only order a study15
★ date still ahead5
§ All 26

The full list, newest first.

The gold rows are the five whose date has not arrived yet — the only ones still in front of you. Shaded rows already happened; they are here so you can see what the market has priced.

DUTYImposes an obligation — a tariff, a fee, a ban — on a stated date. This is what moves prices.
STUDYTells an agency to investigate or negotiate. Nothing happens on signing. 11 of 26 are this.
DateActionWhy it mattersStocks affectedStatus
2026
08/20/26The National Space Transportation Policy (NSPM-17)Memo · Defense · DUTYRescinds the 2013 policy. Targets 1,000+ launches and reentries a year by 2030 against 178 in 2025. Requires US Government payloads to fly on US-built vehicles and directs agencies to favour commercial providers and fund multiple suppliersRKLB, ASTS, LUNR, RDW, BA/LMT via ULA +In force
08/18/26Temporary Suspension of Additional Duties — Canadian Alcohol, Dairy, Motor VehiclesProc · Trade · DUTYSuspends Procs 11046–11048 for three days, 19–22 Aug, on a Canadian commitment to remove the discriminationsMagna, Linamar, Stellantis Canada, Saputo +Lapsed 22 Aug — status unconfirmed
08/13/26Adjusting Imports of Unmanned Aircraft Systems and ComponentsProc · Defense · DUTY100% duty on UAS over 25 kg MTOW, thermal-imaging drones, docking stations and Annex I components. UAS eff 3 Sep 2026; components eff 9 Feb 2027KTOS, AVAV, RCAT, ONDS, UMAC + · DJI-dependent buyers mixedIn force, phasing
08/13/26Rebuilding the United States Navy and America's Shipbuilding Industrial BaseMemo · Defense · STUDYDirects a shipbuilding industrial-base expansion plan and yard investmentHII, Hanwha Philly, Austal, Fincantieri +In force
08/12/26Expanding Capabilities to Combat Transnational Cyber-Enabled CrimeMemo · Cyber · STUDYExpands federal offensive and investigative cyber capability and directs new interagency resourcing — the budget line that funds endpoint and threat-intel vendorsPANW, CRWD, S, FTNT +In force
08/06/26Adjusting Imports of Polysilicon and its DerivativesProc · Minerals · DUTY15% duty plus minimum import prices — $21/kg polysilicon, $100/kg ingots and wafers, $0.22/W cells, $0.38/W modules. Eff 4 Dec 2026. Replaces the expiring Sec 201 solar safeguard and reaches further upstreamFSLR, Hemlock, REC Silicon + · RUN, NOVA, SEDG, ENPH mixedEff 4 Dec 2026
07/30/26Presidential Determination under DPA Sec 101 — Recoverable Critical MineralsMemo · Minerals · STUDYExtends Defense Production Act Title III authority to recoverable critical minerals — the authority that funds direct government offtake and equity stakesMP, USAR, Ramaco, UUUU +In force
07/23/26Section 301 Actions — 60 Economies — Forced LaborMemo · Trade · DUTY10% duty on 17 economies that committed to forced-labour import bans, 12.5% on the rest. Eff 24 Jul 2026 — the day Sec 122 expired. This is the successor tariff architecture, on a statute with no sunsetBroad importers In force
07/20/26Imposing Additional Duties to Offset Canadian Discrimination — Motor Vehicles, Dairy, AlcoholProc · Trade · DUTYUp to 50% on Canadian autos, dairy and alcohol under Section 338 of the Tariff Act 1930 — Procs 11046–11048. First real use of a legally untested statuteMagna, Linamar, Saputo, distillers Suspended 18 Aug, then unconfirmed
07/20/26Securing America's Defense Supply Chains (EO 14415)EO · Defense · STUDYDirects the Dept of War to curtail waivers for Chinese-origin covered materials and require prime and sub-tier origin mapping. Obligations arrive via future DFARS clauses, not immediatelyLMT, RTX, NOC, GD, LHX · MP, USAR + mixedRulemaking pending
07/13/26Modifying the Bears Ears National MonumentProc · Energy · DUTYImmediately shrinks monument boundaries, reopening acreage to mineral entryUEC, EU, coal producers +In force
07/09/26Adjusting Imports of Commercial Aircraft, Jet Engines and PartsProc · Trade · STUDYNo tariff imposed. Orders Commerce and USTR to negotiate agreements within 180 days of 9 Jul 2026 — a dated decision point on the whole aero supply chainBA, GE, RTX, HWM, SPR, HEI, TDG +Negotiation window open
06/29/26Declaration of Emergency — Duty-Free Phosphate Fertilizer from MoroccoProc · Minerals · DUTYImmediate duty suspension on Moroccan phosphateMOS, CF · farmers + mixedIn force
06/22/26Ushering in the Next Frontier of Quantum Innovation (EO 14413)EO · AI/Semis · STUDYEstablishes the QC-ADDS effort to field a scientifically useful quantum computer — the single largest federal commitment to date, and the tape moved on itIONQ, RGTI, QBTS, IBM, HON +In force
06/22/26Securing the Nation Against Advanced Cryptographic Attacks (EO 14412)EO · Cyber · STUDYMandates a national post-quantum cryptography migration strategy; Commerce to issue PQC guidance to agenciesPANW, CRWD, ENTG, Entrust +In force
06/02/26Promoting Advanced AI Innovation and Security (EO 14409)EO · AI/Semis · STUDYHardens federal infrastructure against AI-enabled attack; creates a voluntary framework giving government up to 30 days' pre-release access to frontier modelsOpenAI, Anthropic, GOOGL, MSFT, PANW, CRWD mixedIn force
05/29/26Realigning US Core Childhood Vaccine Recommendations With Peer CountriesEO · Health · STUDYDirects HHS and CDC to revise the childhood immunisation schedule toward peer-country practiceMRK, PFE, GSK, SNY vaccine franchises −−In force
05/19/26Restoring Integrity to America's Financial System (EO 14406)EO · Financial · STUDYDirects a Treasury AML advisory; CFPB within 60 days on deportation risk as an underwriting factor; regulators within 180 days to revisit CIP rulesConsumer lenders, WU, Remitly, banks mixedDeadlines running
04/02/26Adjusting Imports of Pharmaceuticals and Pharmaceutical IngredientsProc · Health · DUTY100% duty on patented pharma and APIs. UK 10%; EU, Japan, Korea, Switzerland 15%; BIS onshoring agreement 20%; HHS MFN-pricing agreement → 0% to 20 Jan 2029. Generics exempt. Eff 31 Jul 2026 (Annex III) / 29 Sep 2026LLY, PFE, MRK, JNJ, AZN, NVO, NVS, GSK — outcome depends entirely on signing an MFN deal ? · TEVA, VTRS + mixedIn force, phasing
04/02/26Strengthening Actions on Aluminum, Steel and CopperProc · Minerals · DUTYExpands derivative coverage; duty applied on full customs value rather than metal contentNUE, STLD, CLF, X + · fabricators mixedIn force
02/20/26Ending Certain Tariff ActionsEO · Trade · DUTYTerminates collection under EOs 14193, 14194, 14195, 14245, 14257, 14323, 14329, 14380 and 14382 following the Supreme Court ruling. CBP stopped collecting 24 Feb 2026; refunds remanded to lower courtsAll importers ++In force
02/20/26Continuing the Suspension of Duty-Free De Minimis TreatmentEO · Trade · DUTYPreserves the de minimis suspension independent of the voided IEEPA ordersShein, Temu, FDX, UPS, ecommerce In force
02/11/26Strengthening National Defense With America's Clean Coal Power Generation Fleet (EO 14386)EO · Energy · DUTYDirects the Secretary of War to approve long-term PPAs with coal plants serving DoW installations; DOE to distribute $175m for upgrades at six named plantsBTU, ARCH, CEIX, VST, AEP, D +In force
01/14/26Adjusting Imports of Semiconductors, SME and DerivativesProc · AI/Semis · DUTY25% duty eff 15 Jan 2026, narrowly scoped to defined semiconductor articles (HTS 8471.50/.80, 8473.30). Commerce report on data-centre chips due 1 Jul 2026. The scope, not the rate, is the whole tradeDELL, HPQ, SMCI · INTC, TXN, MU + mixedIn force
01/14/26Adjusting Imports of Processed Critical Minerals and DerivativesProc · Minerals · STUDYNo duty imposed. Affirms the 232 finding but orders Commerce and USTR to negotiate; reserves price floors and quotasMP, Lynas, Alcoa +Negotiation open
01/09/26Safeguarding Venezuelan Oil RevenueEO · Energy · DUTYEstablishes controls over Venezuelan oil proceedsCVX, refiners mixedIn force
Dates are Federal Register signing dates, not publication dates. Ratings and direction markers are my own assessment of first-order market exposure, not a forecast and not a recommendation. Exposure lists name who is most directly touched, and are illustrative rather than exhaustive. Ceremonial proclamations — national days, months, holidays, half-staff orders — are excluded entirely.
§ The Five

Signed, dated, not yet in the price.

Canada is not on this list. The 50% Section 338 duties went live on 22 August and Canada pledged retaliation from 8 September — but the August duties were suspended within days of being signed, and the 2025 round against Canada was struck down entirely. It'll likely get faded, same as last time. Not a trade I'd size around.

★ Drones · Section 232
Components 9 Feb 2027
100% duty on imported drones and components
Signed 13 Aug 2026. 100% on UAS over 25 kg, thermal-imaging drones, docking stations and Annex I components. Complete aircraft took effect 3 Sep 2026; components follow 9 Feb 2027 — that second date is the one still ahead.
Likely upKTOS · AVAV · RCAT · ONDS · UMAC — domestic drone builders with pricing power once DJI is priced out
Likely downDJI-dependent buyers — agricultural spraying, utility and infrastructure inspection, public-safety fleets
WatchWhether domestic producers can actually source components outside China at these prices. That is what 9 Feb settles.
★ Polysilicon · Section 232
Effective 4 Dec 2026
15% duty plus minimum import prices on solar
Signed 6 Aug 2026. Not just a rate — hard price floors: $21/kg polysilicon, $100/kg ingots and wafers, $0.22/W cells, $0.38/W modules. Replaces the expiring Section 201 safeguard and reaches further upstream. A floor is much harder to route around than a percentage.
Likely upFSLR · Hemlock · REC Silicon — US polysilicon and module makers whose economics invert if imports cannot undercut them
Likely downRUN · NOVA · SEDG · ENPH — installers and inverter names that buy modules and eat the floor
WatchWhether module prices actually hold the $0.38/W floor or importers find a workaround before December.
★ Pharma · Section 232
Tranche two 29 Sep 2026
100% on patented drugs — or 0% if you sign
Signed 2 Apr 2026. Headline 100% on patented pharma and APIs. But an HHS most-favoured-nation pricing agreement drops it to 0% through 20 Jan 2029. UK 10%, EU/Japan/Korea/Switzerland 15%, BIS onshoring deal 20%. This is a pricing instrument wearing a tariff costume — the trade is binary on who signs.
Likely upTEVA · VTRS — generics are exempt outright, and gain share from anyone paying the full rate
Likely downAny of LLY, PFE, MRK, JNJ, AZN, NVO, NVS, GSK that has not signed by 29 Sep
WatchThe signing announcements. Each one is a single-name repricing event with a known deadline.
★ Aircraft · Section 232
Window closes ~5 Jan 2027
The carve-out that has held — so far
Signed 9 Jul 2026 and this one is different: no tariff was imposed. It orders Commerce and USTR to negotiate agreements within 180 days. Aerospace is the one major sector that got a negotiation instead of a duty. If the window closes without deals, it becomes the next 232.
Likely upBA · GE · RTX · HWM · SPR · HEI · TDG — while the carve-out holds
Watch~5 Jan 2027, calculated as 180 days from signing. Either agreements land or aerospace joins steel, copper, pharma and drones.
★ Space · NSPM-17
Deadlines from 18 Nov 2026
178 launches a year, going to 1,000 by 2030
Signed 20 Aug 2026. Rescinds the 2013 policy outright and targets more than 1,000 launches and reentries a year by 2030 — the US did 178 in 2025. That is a 5.6x in four years. Two clauses do real work: Section 6(a) requires US Government payloads to fly on US-manufactured vehicles, and Section 6(b) tells agencies to favour commercial providers, to not compete with them, and to ensure multiple avenues for every orbit and payload class — an explicit push to fund a second source rather than lean on one provider.
Likely upRKLB · ASTS · LUNR · RDW — listed launch and space-infrastructure names that gain from a mandated domestic buyer and a second-source policy
Likely upBA · LMT via ULA, plus the range and ground-infrastructure supply chain that has to be built to carry 1,000 launches a year
Watch18 Nov 2026 Interior names an additional federal reentry site · ~16 Feb 2027 range scheduling rules, the industrial-base strategy and the 48-hour responsive-launch review · ~17 Apr 2027 reentry site development plan
CarefulAll of it is "subject to the availability of appropriations." A memorandum cannot build a range or write a cheque — Congress does. This is a slower theme trade, not a dated duty like the other five.

Not financial advice — please do your own research.

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Nefarious Trading
Equity research and trading commentary — AI infrastructure, semiconductors, aerospace, energy, commodities.
AuthorJohnny Li
Sources
Single source: every action, date, title and mechanism in this piece comes from whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions and the individual proclamation and memorandum pages published there. Every one of the 45 rows links to its own action page on that site — not to the index — and each URL was read off the White House index rather than guessed from the title, because the slug often differs from the headline. Nothing is taken from secondary coverage, law-firm summaries or trade press.

My own work, not from the source: the 1–5 rating, the DUTY / STUDY classification, the "stocks affected" lists, the up/down direction calls, the five-name shortlist and the view on Canada are my assessment. The White House publishes the instrument; it does not name companies or say what a policy is worth. Treat those columns as opinion.

One figure is not from the source: the "178 launches in 2025" baseline in the space card is not stated in NSPM-17 — the memorandum gives only the 2030 target of more than 1,000 launches and reentries a year. The 178 comes from published launch counts and is included for scale, flagged here because it falls outside the single-source rule.

Everything was scored on one question: can this move a stock you can name? The 1–5 numbers have been taken off the table — they were my working scaffold and they are gone now that everything weak has been deleted. What is left is the shading: gold for the five whose date is still ahead, and a darker tint on the heaviest actions. The expired Section 122 surcharge has been removed too, so every row on the page is live law. Anything that came out at 2 or below is deleted rather than greyed out, which cut 13 more rows — customs enforcement, federal-lands access, fintech licensing, TrumpIRA, FDA mental-health pathways, DPA re-delegation, mortgage credit, phosphorus, arms-transfer strategy, single-family investor rules, defense acquisition reform, and the two you flagged (childhood vaccines and quartz). Every one of them directs an agency to think about something with no rate, no date and no listed pure-play. Three moved up: Quantum Innovation 2 → 4 — you were right, IONQ, RGTI and QBTS traded on it, and a 2 could not explain that; DPA Section 101 critical minerals 3 → 4 — Title III is the authority behind direct government offtake and equity stakes, not a study; Commercial aircraft 3 → 4 — it carries a dated 180-day decision point over BA, GE, RTX, HWM, SPR, HEI and TDG.

Five rows cut for being unpriceable. Ending Birth Tourism, Schedule Policy/Career in the Excepted Service, DEI Discrimination by Federal Contractors, Truthful Advertising of Products Made in America and the Ratepayer Protection Pledge all scored a 1 — headline risk with no rate, no date and no company you could put a trade on. They are gone rather than greyed out. Three scores also moved: Transnational Cyber-Enabled Crime 2 → 4 (it funds a procurement line, not just a study), Gold Standard Childhood Vaccine 3 → 2 and Quartz Surface Products 3 → 2 (one narrow import category, no listed US pure-play).

Two rows removed and one date corrected. A Brazil Section 301 action dated 15 July and a DPA Section 303 waiver dated 13 February could not be found anywhere on whitehouse.gov, so both were cut rather than left linking to the index — the count falls from 47 to 45. Both were STUDY items rated 2, so no duty, date or shortlist changes. The Ratepayer Protection Pledge was dated 23 February here; the proclamation page shows 4 March 2026, and the row now reads that. The Bears Ears row is retitled to the official Modifying the Bears Ears National Monument — no companion Grand Staircase-Escalante proclamation appears on the site.

Coverage: calendar 2026 only, 1 January to 24 August 2026. Actions from 2025 are excluded. Dates shown are signing dates as published on the action page. Where an effective date is calculated rather than stated — the aircraft negotiation window at 180 days from 9 July 2026, the space deadlines at 90/180/240 days from 20 August 2026 — that is arithmetic on the deadline written into the instrument.
One trader's view — not investment advice. Do your own research. This is a reading of public government documents; ratings and direction markers are my own assessment of first-order exposure and are stated as such.